AZ-05: Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) in a rematch against David Schweikert (R) in J.D. Hayworth's old district. Mitchell won 53-44 in 2008 in a wave election. NYT recently downgraded this to a toss-up. I give the narrow edge to Schweikert, who leads 50-44 in a recent GOP funded poll, given his poor approve/disapprove numbers there in particular, given Jan Brewer's coattails, and given rampant Arizona anger at the federal government, which is strongest in Phoenix and suburban areas, which is his district. Republican pickup.
From Dag Blog