The best chance for a Republican pickup of a congressional seat in Arizona is probably David Schweikert's challenge against Harry Mitchell in the East Valley.There are two reasons for this. The first is the political arithmetic.
There are 38,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district. That compares with a 17,000 Republican-registration advantage in Gabrielle Giffords' southern Arizona district and a 20,000 registration disadvantage in Ann Kirkpatrick's district in northern Arizona.
The second is the quality of candidates. Schweikert is a mainstream conservative with a track record as a state legislator and county treasurer, as well as previous congressional bids
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