Saturday, October 2, 2010

Mesa Issues blog predicting bad news for Harry Mitchell

The blog Mesa Issues, which closely follows East Valley politics, where Harry Mitchell's Congressional District 5 is located, is predicting David Schweikert will pull it off and defeat Mitchell.

The Race for Congressional District 5

A little over a year ago, everything was looking great for the Democrats. At the time, we wondered if the Democrats were taking aim at Mesa to try to expand their influence. We also discussed how the frequent visits from the President and his cabinet could be seen as an attempt to appeal to Mesa or at the very least, give support to Congressman Harry Mitchell.

Now, a mere month prior to the election, it doesn't look like all the favors have made a lick of difference. In fact, with Obama's mounting unpopularity, it might even be part of what is reflecting poorly on Mitchell.

Its no secret that Harry Mitchell is in the fight of his life - and though he was given some flexibility to satisfy his conservative district, his votes on healthcare, the stimulus, and the bailouts may spell doom for him.

We have heard the phrase "enthusiasm gap" repeated time and again, but the reality is that its more like an enthusiasm canyon. We receive a lot of email from all over the East Valley and its difficult to tell how many tea parties there are, but we can say with certainty that there are far more tea party groups than democrat clubs. Mitchell's upset of Hayworth required Republicans who were sick of JD to cross the aisle. In this current environment, we don't see that happening.

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