Exit polling of early ballot voters, considered the most trustworthy polls out there, show David Schweikert trouncing Harry Mitchell by a whopping 53% to 38%. He is leading among independents.
The survey included more Republicans than their proportions in CD5, so the pollsters adjusted to account for that, showing Schweikert leading 49% to 41%, still an unsurmountable lead. 1,073 voters were surveyed by autodialer.
However, considering Republicans are turning in early ballots at rates of 49% to Democrats' 29%, it looks like a lot more Republicans than Democrats may be voting this election, and so adjusting for voter registration is not really necessary. The poll surveyed 51% Republicans, and Republicans account for less than 39% of voters in the district. But with Republicans trouncing Democrats in voting this year, Schweikert could end up trouncing Mitchell even more than 53% to 38%.
Ruth McClung is polling 55% to 36% ahead of Raul Grijalva, which slips to 49% to 41% when adjusted for voter registration proportions in CD7.
The polling was provided to the Yellow Sheet Report on condition of anonymity, but it is a reputable local pollster.