Friday, July 31, 2009

AFP: What if the tax referendum falls through?

From what we hear, the July 29th tax & budget deal may be falling through. If it does, that won't necessarily be a bad thing, assuming:

1) no tax increases are enacted or referred to the ballot;

2) the state can't find more than $1 billion in one-time proceeds from asset sales and sale-leaseback schemes;

3) the state can't figure out how to legally or effectively bond; and,

4) the above three conditions result in the Legislature and Governor having to cut $1.5 billion out of the General Fund in the coming months.

Here is a tentative scoring rubric for that kind of no-deal scenario:

Here was our tentative scoring rubric for the elements of the July 29th plan:

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