So far, every single poll I have seen in the Arizona governor's race has been put out by an organization with ties or biases toward one or more of the candidates. Additionally, NONE of them bothered to poll "likely likely" voters - voters with a solid history of voting in every past GOP primary; instead, they simply poll voters who may have occasionally voted in GOP primaries. If you talk to any elections analyst, like Frank Luntz, they will tell you that no poll is worth its salt unless it surveys "likely likely" voters. So why do pollsters continue doing it? Because they want to bias the results toward more liberal Republicans!
This latest poll was commissioned by the Arizona Automobile Dealers Association, which obviously favors the most business kind of Republican. I am sure powerful moderate GOP automobile dealership owner Jim Click is behind it. Click is supporting Ducey.
Remember, the first (biased) poll in the race had Bennett in the lead. Then he dropped in the next (biased) polls, which showed Ducey and Jones were in the lead. The liberal media kept up the spin from those (biased) polls that the race was only between those two, desperate to keep from giving Thomas any extra press.
Then, guess what? Another (biased) poll, this Automotive Dealer one, comes out that shows Jones is no longer in the lead, Smith has surpassed her. Oops, guess that spin all along about this only being a two-person race was wrong! Shucks!
So let's look at the numbers in this latest (biased) poll. Thomas is now at 12% among Republicans, TIED, yeah I said TIED, with Bennett. Remember, Bennett was allegedly in 1st place in the first (biased) poll. 12% of the GOP voters polled were undecided.
Riggs has 5%, which takes votes away from Thomas, but he's been hit pretty hard lately with people upset that his American Conservative Union ranking is lower than even John McCain's, at 76. So I think that 5% is going to decrease and go to Thomas. Of the 12% undecideds, it's hard to say, but I think if you factor in the bias of this poll, you can safely assume that there is around 12% of the conservative regular voters that were not consulted who will vote for Thomas. Note that 2% say they are voting for Al Melvin. Since he's no longer in the race, I think most of that will go to Thomas.
Add it all up and even with this (biased) poll, it is apparent that Thomas is very likely to end up with 25% of the vote. Ducey is currently at 26%, but he's losing popularity currently due to Cold Stone Creamery franchise owners coming out against him.