Thursday, January 7, 2010

Poll shows Republican would easily beat Harry Mitchell in CD5

AZ 5th Congressional District Poll:

Harry Mitchell Re-Elect at 41, Over 10-Point GOP Generic Advantage;

GOP Primary Wide Open - 70% Undecided

Alexandria, VA – Today American Viewpoint, a nationally recognized public opinion research firm, released the findings of a survey conducted in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District with 300 likely general election voters that was commissioned by newly filed candidate Dr. Chris Salvino. Interviews were conducted August 31-September 1, 2009.

“This is the clearest evidence yet that Congressman Harry Mitchell is extremely vulnerable in his re-election effort and his numbers are likely even worse today than they were in the fall,” said Randall Gutermuth, Vice President with American Viewpoint. “Making matters worse for Mitchell is that voters nationally have become stridently anti-incumbent and considering Mitchell’s 40 year tenure as career politician his chances for re-election look even more bleak. Harry Mitchell has the unenviable task of pleasing his GOP-leaning district while also having to follow the Speaker Pelosi agenda.

Some of the key findings:

When respondents were asked whom they would support, either the Republican candidate or Democrat candidate, Democrats were in trouble, marking the first time in 4 years the district has flipped:

Generic Ballot Test:

Total Republican: 45%

Total Democrat: 32%

Even worse news for Mitchell is that his re-election number was way under 50%, a key indicator of where an incumbent Member of Congress should be. When asked if Mitchell has done his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election versus giving a new person a chance:

Mitchell Re-Elect:

Re-Elect Mitchell: 41%

New Person: 41%

In the GOP Primary, 70% of the respondents were undecided. David Schweikert leads among announced candidates.

GOP Primary

Undecided: 70%

David Schweikert: 26%

Jim Ward: 3%

Chris Salvino: 1%

Erik Wnuck: 0%

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