Sunday, December 30, 2007

Horizon's Journalists' Roundtable presidential predictions

Predictions for president were divided on Friday night's Journalists' Roundtable. I agree with Howie Fischer, that Hillary will win, with Giuliani getting the GOP nomination (overall, this is what national polls have consistently shown). Mark Flatten predicted that Giuliani would win, with Hillary getting the Dem nomination. The odd man out was Doug MacEachern, who predicted that Obama would win, with McCain getting the GOP nomination (I suspect this is because of personal kinship between MacEachern and McCain). They all agreed that immigration is a bigger issue to voters than the war.

Flatten predicted that Sen. Russell Pearce would give Rep. Jeff Flake a tough challenge for re-election in CD-6, possibly even unseating him, over the issue of illegal immigration. He said no one had a chance at unseating Rep. Howie Mitchell in CD-5, but he admitted that Mitchell had been his high school government teacher so obviously he's biased. Former legislator and county treasurer David Schweikert will present a formidable challenge to Mitchell, and CD-5 leans Republican. Don't underestimate the doggedness of Schweikert, who has wanted this seat since his failed run in 1994. The journalists agreed that voters are a bit dissatisfied, which will hurt incumbent Democrats. Fischer predicted the Democrats would lose a few seats in both houses in the state legislature. He also predicted that the national GOP will only drop money into the CD-1 race (Renzi's seat), since it's an open seat.

Host Ted Simons asked if we'd be riding the trolley (blight rail) at this time next year, and Fischer responded, "only if you want to go from 44th St. to 48th St."

Note: there were two somewhat conservative journalists on Friday's show, Horizon had to get in its once-a-year fair and balanced show before the year ended

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