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| Government reformer Tim Jeffries is presenting a formidable challenge |
However, like the 2016 election, the 2018 election is not expected
to be conventional in Arizona nor in many other states. Historically, low
favorability ratings of Congress and disgust with establishment politicians has
led to upheaval. Recent Democrat victories in Virginia and New Jersey are
likely another sign next year will be one of upheaval.
In recent years, Republicans have not always prevailed at
the top of the ticket in Arizona. Democrat Janet Napolitano won the
gubernatorial election in 2002 as well as reelection in 2006.
In the 2014 gubernatorial race, then-State Treasurer Ducey
prevailed in the bruising and grueling primary with only 37.17 percent of the
vote, versus 62.83 percent for seven other candidates. Despite a significant
fundraising edge and the prevailing red state winds at the time, Ducey defeated
Democrat Fred Duval in the general election with only 805,062 votes versus
626,921 votes, while approximately 74,000 votes were cast for other minor
candidates.
Ducey has lost support over the years since becoming
governor. Scars and grudges persist with some of the unsuccessful Republican
candidates based on the heavy influence and unseemly negativity of the
pro-Ducey independent expenditures (aka “dark money”) that has become standard
in Arizona yet loathed by its citizens.
In addition, Ducey’s support for Trump’s candidacy has been
lukewarm at best, and history is proving President Trump has a long memory for
such things.
Besides the fact that Arizona voters are willing to vote
for a Democratic governor, voter demographics are changing. Democratic voter registration
has grown even more than Republican voter registration. Concurrently, the ranks
of Independent voters have swelled. Today there are approximately 1.2 million
registered Republicans, 1.1 million Democrats and 1.2 million Independent
voters in Arizona.
So, what could all this and more portend for Ducey in his
24x7 campaign to secure re-election as governor and someday run for president?
Arizona may not be a purple state, but it sure isn’t a
deeply red state. Arizonans have been, and surely remain, willing to vote for
whomever they feel will advance our state and country.
The voter registration gains of the Arizona Democratic
Party cannot be overlooked nor minimized just because the Arizona Republican
Party currently possesses an approximate 100,000 voter advantage. Furthermore,
it is reasonable to surmise voter energy will be with the opposition party in
2018, especially with a coveted U.S. Senate seat wide open due to Flake’s
decision not to run for reelection.
The ranks of Independent voters are swelling in Arizona.
Independents outnumber Democrats, and are barely outnumbered by Republicans. It
is reasonable to surmise voter anger with intransigent government at all levels
will be on display in 2018. This positions Independent voters with more power
and leverage ever.
Ducey enjoys some favorable traction with Republican voters
in Maricopa County where Phoenix is located. Overall, Maricopa County comprises
well over 60 percent of the electorate — but Democratic registration is
growing. Furthermore, in Arizona’s second largest county, Pima County, where
Tucson is located, various polls show Ducey’s numbers in the tank.
Ducey’s two reported challengers for 2018 are liberal
Democrats. Dr. David Garcia is a highly respected educator based in Maricopa
County who barely lost his 2014 run to become Arizona Superintendent of Public
Instruction. Senator Steve Farley is an ultra-liberal yet avuncular politician
with an ability to disarm many with his smile and wit. Both gentlemen are not
viewed as strong challengers to the sitting governor, but Arizona citizens are
restive just like tens of millions of other Americans.
As promised, Ducey has delivered for big business in
Arizona, and is advancing his small business initiatives by way of regulatory
reform. There is goodness to this, but the trickle down to average Arizonans is
not often felt. Arizona’s wealthy are thriving. Arizona’s middle class is
shrinking. Democrats accuse Ducey of neglecting the poor. His prolific press
release machine does not actually solve the problems of simple average
Arizonans trying to claw their way to the American dream.
Ducey has largely alienated Arizona public school teachers
with his soaring rhetoric and limited action. His 2017 State of the State
speech was very strong in its support for public schools and the plight of
low-paid public-school teachers. However, his follow-up proposal to grant them
a meager two percent raise over five years not only fell flat, it made him a political
laughingstock to rank-and-file school teachers in Arizona.
Ducey is closely aligned with Senators McCain and Flake,
both highly unpopular at this juncture. Self-fashioned “maverick” McCain
cratered the repeal of Obamacare which significantly angered Arizona
Republicans. Self-fashioned political martyr Flake has heaped derision on
President Trump at every turn.
A recent and
extensive statewide poll that I was privy to review as background for this
article highlighted what many people
can easily surmise on their own, and that is Arizonans want truly independent,
non-partisan outsider solutions. It found that 74.3 percent of Republicans
would vote for a “truly independent, non-partisan” candidate for governor. Even
more Independents and Democrats agreed. Perhaps, like most Americans, Arizonans
are weary of partisan political rancor and limited action that is often glossed
over with soaring rhetoric and flowery press releases from both parties.
Ducey appears to have cleared the gubernatorial primary as
the Republican candidate for 2018. However, the intriguing and disruptive specter
of an independent, bi-partisan, coalition-building candidate for Arizona governor
looms large in the person of Timothy
Jeffries. As previously and widely reported, Jeffries is an unflinching
Roman Catholic and highly successful businessman who came from a broken family
to build an impressive “Only in America” success story that continues to
unfold.
Jeffries served in Ducey’s cabinet as the director of
social services in Arizona for approximately 21 months. The day before
Thanksgiving last year, Jeffries (aka “Director J.”) and several of his trusted
leaders were unceremoniously ousted
from their transformational roles, much to the disappointment and dejection of
thousands of social services workers and social services partners throughout
Arizona. Approximately 2,000 of 8,000 of Jeffries’ former “colleagues” in
social services have contacted him over the past year, and the word is over a
thousand of these very same Arizonans have asked Jeffries to run for governor.
Jeffries is a rising star in Arizona politics with a knack for government
reform, and Arizonans are flocking to him in droves. Many believe he was
wrongly fired by Ducey.
The Arizona governor’s race is looking like it will have as
much excitement, if not more, than the U.S. Senate race to replace Senator Jeff
Flake and the replacement of McCain.
Read more about Tim Jeffries below
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